LNG industry will cool down quickly this year

Recently, the International Natural Gas Union (IGU) released its annual LNG report, saying that as of 2019, global LNG trade has experienced six consecutive years of growth. In 2019, global LNG trade volume rose by 13% year-on-year. However, with the spread of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic worldwide, the LNG market has become "cloudy." Oversupply has caused prices to continue to fall, and investment heat may no longer be.

The report pointed out that in the past year, the global LNG consumer group has not changed, and some of these countries have increased LNG imports, including Poland, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Panama and so on. India, as a major energy consumer, also increased its floating regasification capacity significantly last year.

From the perspective of the LNG export market, in 2019, the United States, Russia, Algeria and Egypt saw significant growth in LNG exports. Among them, Qatar and Australia are the top two global LNG exporters, followed by the United States and Russia. In 2019, due to the sufficient supply of shale gas, a large number of LNG projects in the United States have been approved.

On the demand side, the report points out that the Asia-Pacific region is still a region where LNG demand is concentrated. According to 2018 data, the total import of LNG in the Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 70% of global import trade.

It is worth noting that last year, LNG imports in European countries rose sharply, with a total of 32 million tons of new LNG imports in the United Kingdom, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium. In addition, Egypt and Argentina have changed from traditional LNG importers to LNG exporters.

The report predicts that the expansion trend of natural gas liquefaction capacity is expected to continue this year. Global liquefaction capacity will increase by 24.35 million tons this year. By the end of this year, natural gas liquefaction capacity is expected to further expand to about 450 million tons. Driven by the increase in global LNG demand last year, the approved natural gas liquefaction project also hit a new high, which will also lead to increased competition in this market, and more EPC companies hope to enter this market and get a slice of the cake.

The report data shows that between January 2019 and February 2020, a total of 6 new LNG receiving stations were added globally, and 3 LNG receiving stations have been expanded. The total regasification capacity of 37 LNG markets in the world has reached 821 million Ton.

It is worth mentioning that the report points out that floating regasification equipment will be a sector with growth potential in the LNG market. As of February this year, 19 countries around the world have chosen to use floating equipment.

In terms of prices, the report pointed out that due to the rise in global natural gas production and the rapid launch of LNG export facilities, the LNG market has seen oversupply and LNG prices hit a record low in 2019. The report analyzes that low prices are likely to help the LNG industry expand the scale of coal substitution.

IGU Chairman Joe Kang pointed out that natural gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, plays a key role in providing reliable and cleaner energy for all. Even in the most mature markets, the cost and reliability of renewable energy is a key issue, which also provides opportunities for natural gas.

At the same time, some analysts believe that due to the "sulfur restriction order" issued by the shipping industry since January this year, LNG has ushered in a new development opportunity as a transportation fuel, and some shipowners have begun to order LNG fuel ships. In addition, LNG is also more widely used in transportation industries such as long-distance trucks in some European and American countries.

However, despite the good momentum of the development of the LNG industry in 2019, with the new coronary pneumonia epidemic sweeping the world in the first quarter of this year, the future of LNG will be overshadowed, and the investment fever may suffer.

The report pointed out that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has caused many countries around the world to enter a "blockade" state, which has also caused global industry and commerce to face a "dull prospect", and global natural gas demand has also been hit by this crisis. The report believes that before the next winter, the hope of recovery of global natural gas prices will be slim.

At the same time, the report pointed out that the global LNG market is also facing environmental issues that have attracted the attention of the international community. Due to the large amount of carbon dioxide and methane emitted on the natural gas production line, it is likely to increase global warming. To this end, the LNG industry is facing multiple challenges such as increasingly strict carbon emission policies, carbon taxes, and zero carbon targets in various countries.